Anthropic just passed OpenAI in revenue run rate. OpenAI is at roughly $25B. Anthropic just crossed $30B. Sixteen months ago Anthropic was doing $1B. You could add up the annual revenue of Snowflake, Datadog, Cloudflare, MongoDB, and HubSpot and you'd still be $15B short of where Anthropic sits today. Combined they do about $15.4B. Anthropic does double that. A company that didn't exist five years ago. That $1B was December 2024. By end of 2025 it had hit $9B and people thought the growth would slow. It didn't slow. It doubled again to $14B by February. Then $19B by March. Then the number everyone is staring at today: $30B run rate in April. In a single month they added $11B in annualized revenue. That's an entire Atlassian appearing overnight. They've 10x'd revenue every year for three straight years. If they do it again, Anthropic hits $100B run rate by end of next year. More revenue than IBM. More revenue than Nike. From a company that earned its first dollar less than three years ago. Claude Code didn't exist 14 months ago. It's at $2.5B run rate. 4% of all GitHub commits on Earth are now written by Claude Code. That number doubled in a single month. Projected to hit 20% by December. One in five commits on the planet written by one model. To serve this demand they just ordered $21B in custom chips through Broadcom. Nearly 1 million TPUs. Over a gigawatt of compute. That's enough electricity to power a city of 700,000 people. Just for inference. Not training the next model. Running the current one. Anthropic pulls $211 per monthly user. OpenAI pulls $25 per weekly user. 8x monetization on a fraction of the audience. Two years ago 12 companies spent $1M+ a year with Anthropic. Today it's over 500. 8 of the Fortune 10 are customers. The secondary market has already repriced what this is. $2B in buy-side demand chasing Anthropic shares. Almost no sellers. Bids implying a $600B valuation, up from the $380B primary round two months ago. Meanwhile $600M in OpenAI shares are sitting unsold. Goldman is charging 15-20% carry on Anthropic allocations. They're giving away OpenAI for free. The IPO was originally targeting $500B. It will likely come in north of $800B. At 10x annual growth for three consecutive years, the question isn't whether Anthropic is overvalued. The question is what multiple you put on a company that might be doing $100B in revenue 18 months from now. Sixteen months ago this was a research lab. They just passed OpenAI and the run-rate revenue of Netflix. And every number in this post will be outdated by next month.
Line chart (Dec 2025–Feb 2026) showing the share of first-time enterprise customers choosing Anthropic vs. OpenAI — Anthropic rises to 73.3% while OpenAI falls to 26.7%. This visual supports the tweet’s claim about Anthropic overtaking OpenAI in enterprise traction, a key driver behind its rapidly increasing run-rate revenue.
Source: Axios
Research Brief
What our analysis found
Anthropic announced on April 6, 2026 that its annualized revenue run rate had surpassed $30 billion, a figure the company said rose from approximately $9 billion at the end of 2025. The trajectory implies the AI company roughly tripled its revenue pace in barely four months, a growth rate virtually unprecedented in enterprise technology. By comparison, OpenAI's annualized run rate was reported at roughly $25 billion as of late February 2026, based on figures from The Information and confirmed broadly by OpenAI CFO Sarah Friar's January 2026 statement that the company had surpassed $20 billion for 2025. If both figures are accurate, Anthropic has overtaken its older, better-known rival in top-line revenue velocity.
Much of the surge is attributed to Claude Code, a developer tool that did not exist 14 months ago and is now estimated at a $2.5 billion run rate. SemiAnalysis, a respected semiconductor and AI research firm, estimated in February 2026 that Claude Code was responsible for roughly 4% of all public GitHub commits, projecting that share could exceed 20% by year-end. To keep up with inference demand, Anthropic disclosed a massive infrastructure deal: Broadcom's Q4 FY2025 earnings transcript confirms the chipmaker received approximately $21 billion in orders from Anthropic across two quarters, covering custom TPU-class accelerators and infrastructure representing nearly one million TPUs and over a gigawatt of compute capacity.
On the valuation front, Anthropic closed a $30 billion Series G round in early 2026 at a reported $380 billion valuation. Secondary-market commentary suggests bids have since pushed implied valuations toward $600 billion, though these private transactions are opaque and thinly traded. The tweet's comparison to established SaaS companies is directionally sound: Snowflake, Datadog, Cloudflare, MongoDB, and HubSpot have a combined annual revenue in the low-to-mid teens of billions, well under half of Anthropic's claimed run rate. Whether that run rate converts to recognized annual revenue at the same pace remains the key open question for investors weighing an anticipated IPO.
Fact Check
Evidence from both sides
Supporting Evidence
Anthropic's own $30B run-rate announcement
Anthropic's April 6, 2026 press release explicitly stated that its annualized revenue run rate surpassed $30 billion, up from approximately $9 billion at year-end 2025. This is a primary source directly from the company.
OpenAI's ~$25B run rate independently reported
Reuters and The Information reported OpenAI's annualized run rate reached roughly $25 billion as of late February 2026. OpenAI CFO Sarah Friar publicly confirmed in January 2026 that annualized revenue had surpassed $20 billion. These figures support the tweet's claim that Anthropic has passed OpenAI.
Broadcom earnings confirm ~$21B in chip orders
Broadcom CEO Hock Tan stated on the company's Q4 FY2025 earnings call (December 12,
that Broadcom received approximately $10 billion from Anthropic in Q3 2025 and an additional $11 billion in Q4 2025, totaling roughly $21 billion in custom chip orders
This matches the tweet's claim precisely.
SemiAnalysis validates the 4% GitHub commits figure
SemiAnalysis published a paid research report on February 5, 2026 estimating that Claude Code accounted for approximately 4% of public GitHub commits and projected the share could reach 20% or more by year-end 2026. The tweet's figures align with this third-party analysis.
SaaS revenue comparison is directionally accurate
Publicly reported fiscal year revenues for Snowflake (~$3.5B product revenue), Datadog (~$3.4B), MongoDB (~$1.9B), and publicly available figures for Cloudflare and HubSpot place their combined total in the low-to-mid teens of billions, supporting the tweet's claim that they collectively fall well short of Anthropic's stated run rate.
$380B primary round valuation is confirmed
Reuters and StreetInsider reported that Anthropic's Series G funding round valued the company at $380 billion, consistent with the tweet's reference to the primary round two months prior.
Contradicting Evidence
Run rate is not recognized revenue
The $30 billion figure is an annualized run rate based on a single month's bookings extrapolated over twelve months. It does not represent actual collected or recognized annual revenue. If growth plateaus or contracts in subsequent months, full-year revenue could come in significantly below $30 billion. Comparing a monthly run rate to the full fiscal-year revenue of public SaaS companies is an apples-to-oranges exercise that flatters Anthropic.
Revenue trajectory details are unaudited
The month-by-month milestones cited in the tweet — $9B in December, $14B in February, $19B in March, $30B in April — rely on Anthropic's self-reported figures and press release. Anthropic is a private company with no obligation to publish audited financials, and these numbers have not been independently verified by any auditor or regulator.
The $1B figure from 16 months ago lacks a clear primary source
The tweet states Anthropic was doing $1 billion in run-rate revenue in December 2024. While various press reports have cited similar figures, the exact number and date have not been confirmed by a primary Anthropic disclosure.
Secondary market valuations are unreliable indicators
The tweet cites $600 billion implied valuation from secondary bids and contrasts buyer interest in Anthropic versus OpenAI shares. Secondary AI-company share markets are illiquid, with extremely small sample sizes and wide bid-ask spreads. The claim that Goldman is charging 15-20% carry on Anthropic allocations while giving away OpenAI shares for free could not be verified through any public filing or named source.
Claude Code's GitHub commit share methodology is disputed
The 4% figure comes from SemiAnalysis's proprietary model using proxy signals such as commit message patterns and API tokenomics, not from GitHub's own official data. GitHub has not publicly confirmed that 4% of commits originate from Claude Code, and the projection to 20% by December assumes current exponential growth continues unabated.
IPO valuation projections are speculative
The tweet's assertion that Anthropic's IPO will likely come in north of $800 billion is not attributed to any filing, banker guidance, or named source. No S-1 has been filed, and IPO pricing depends on market conditions, disclosed financials, and investor sentiment at the time of listing.
10x annual growth extrapolation is historically unprecedented and unlikely to persist
The tweet implies Anthropic could reach $100 billion in revenue by the end of next year by continuing its 10x annual growth. No technology company in history has sustained that growth rate at such scale; even the fastest-growing enterprise software firms saw deceleration well before reaching $30 billion. Extrapolating recent hyper-growth indefinitely ignores base-rate reversion.
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