*OPENAI MISSED '25 REV TARGET FOR CHATGPT: WSJ Wow. OpenAI not only missed their 2025 revenue target, but they also missed their goal of reaching 1B weekly active users according to WSJ CFO Sarah Friar also reportedly told company leaders that she’s worried the company won’t be able to meet their spending commitments if revenue doesn’t grow faster. “OpenAI missed an internal goal of reaching one billion weekly active users for ChatGPT by the end of last year, according to people familiar with the goals. The company still hasn't announced that milestone, unnerving some investors. It also missed its yearly revenue target for ChatGPT as well after Google's Gemini saw massive growth late last year and ate into OpenAI's market share, the people said. The company has also struggled with defection rates among subscribers, according to people familiar with those figures.”
Stacked-bar infographic showing generative-AI web traffic share over time (12 months ago → Today, Nov 2025) where OpenAI/ChatGPT’s share falls while Google’s Gemini rises—directly illustrating how Gemini gained traffic at ChatGPT’s expense and supporting the WSJ claim about OpenAI losing market share.
Source: Android Authority (based on Similarweb data)
Research Brief
What our analysis found
OpenAI has missed key internal benchmarks for ChatGPT, according to a Wall Street Journal report that has rattled investors and raised questions about the AI giant's aggressive growth trajectory. The company fell short of its internal goal of reaching one billion weekly active users by the end of 2025 and also missed its yearly revenue target for ChatGPT, with competition from Google's Gemini and Anthropic reportedly eating into its market share. As of February 2026, ChatGPT had reached over 900 million weekly active users — impressive growth from 300 million in December 2024, but still shy of the billion-user milestone.
The financial picture adds further concern. CFO Sarah Friar reportedly warned company leaders that OpenAI may not be able to meet its spending commitments — particularly future computing contracts — if revenue growth doesn't accelerate. OpenAI reached approximately $20 billion in annual recurring revenue in 2025 but projected an $8 billion operating loss for the same year, with cumulative losses from 2023 to 2028 expected to hit $44 billion. The company's cash burn has been revised upward to $115 billion over five years, driven by the enormous computational costs of training and running large language models.
Despite the headwinds, OpenAI recently completed a massive $122 billion funding round at a valuation of $852 billion as of April 2026 and counts 50 million paying subscribers, including over 9 million business users. The company is reportedly preparing for a potential IPO, though Friar herself has expressed doubts about a year-end timeline due to concerns about internal controls for public reporting. OpenAI also projects generating approximately $2.5 billion in advertising revenue for 2026, signaling a diversification strategy as subscriber defection rates remain a persistent challenge.
Fact Check
Evidence from both sides
Supporting Evidence
Wall Street Journal as primary source
Multiple major outlets including Investing.com, CNA, PYMNTS.com, Benzinga, Decrypt, TipRanks.com, and The Decoder have cited the WSJ report confirming that OpenAI missed both its one billion weekly active user goal and its yearly ChatGPT revenue target.
CFO spending concerns confirmed
The WSJ report details that Sarah Friar told company leaders she is worried OpenAI won't be able to cover future computing contracts if revenue growth doesn't pick up, and OpenAI's board has been scrutinizing data-center spending amid slowing growth.
Competition eroding market share
Reports confirm that Google's Gemini saw massive growth in late 2025, while Anthropic gained ground in coding and enterprise markets, both contributing to OpenAI's missed targets and subscriber defections.
Subscriber churn documented
People familiar with the figures confirmed to the WSJ that OpenAI has struggled with defection rates among paying subscribers, corroborating the tweet's claims about retention challenges.
Multiple monthly revenue misses
Beyond the annual target, OpenAI reportedly missed multiple monthly revenue targets earlier in 2026, suggesting a pattern of underperformance rather than a one-time shortfall.
Contradicting Evidence
User growth remains substantial despite the miss
While OpenAI fell short of its billion-user goal, ChatGPT reached over 900 million weekly active users by February 2026 — a threefold increase from 300 million in December 2024 — suggesting the internal target may have been aggressively optimistic rather than indicative of a failing product.
OpenAI leadership denies internal division
CEO Sam Altman and CFO Sarah Friar issued a joint statement to Reuters pushing back on reports of friction, stating they are "totally aligned on buying as much compute as we can," though this addressed internal dynamics rather than directly disputing the missed financial or user targets.
Massive recent funding round signals investor confidence
OpenAI completed a $122 billion funding round at an $852 billion valuation in April 2026, indicating that despite the missed targets, major investors still view the company's long-term prospects favorably.
Revenue scale is still historically unprecedented for an AI company
Reaching approximately $20 billion in annual recurring revenue in 2025 — up from an annualized rate of $12 billion in July 2025 — represents rapid growth by any standard, even if it fell below internal projections.
Diversification strategies underway
OpenAI projects $2.5 billion in advertising revenue for 2026 with estimates rising to $100 billion annually by 2030, suggesting the company is actively building new revenue streams that could offset subscription growth challenges.
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