TRUMP TOUTS STOCK MARKET PERFORMANCE
Source: Statista
Research Brief
What our analysis found
President Trump has been vocal about touting the stock market's performance during his second term, and the numbers did reach historic territory earlier this year. The S&P 500 topped 7,000 for the first time on January 28, 2026, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed above 50,000 for the first time on February 6, 2026, capping its best single-day gain since May 2025. On February 8, Trump credited "our Great TARIFFS" for the rally and predicted the Dow would reach 100,000 by the time he leaves office in January 2029.
However, since those milestones, markets have given back gains amid escalating geopolitical tensions and trade policy uncertainty. As of March 16, 2026, the S&P 500 stood at 6,699.38, the Dow at 46,946.41, and the Nasdaq at 22,374.18 — all negative for the year, with the S&P down 2.1%, the Dow down 2.3%, and the Nasdaq down 3.7% year-to-date. Oil price swings tied to the Iran conflict have rattled markets, with Brent crude spiking to roughly $100 per barrel on March 12 before easing.
Analysts largely attribute the earlier rally to factors beyond White House policy, including AI-driven earnings growth — with tech sector earnings per share projected to rise approximately 27% versus roughly 9% for the broader S&P 500 — along with Federal Reserve rate cuts in late 2025 and expectations around the "One Big, Beautiful Bill Act" tax package. The Fed held its policy rate steady at 3.50%–3.75% on January 28, 2026, underscoring its independent role in shaping economic conditions. Meanwhile, Trump's own tariff threats and court challenges to his trade agenda have introduced significant volatility, complicating his narrative of market triumph.
Fact Check
Evidence from both sides
Supporting Evidence
Markets did hit record highs during Trump's second term
: The S&P 500 crossed 7,000 for the first time on January 28, 2026, and the Dow closed above 50,000 on February 6, 2026, providing tangible milestones for Trump to reference (Axios, Washington Post).
Trump explicitly made the claim
: On February 8, 2026, Trump posted on social media crediting "our Great TARIFFS" for the record stock market and predicted the Dow would hit 100,000 by the end of his term in January 2029 (Fox Business).
Strong 2025 market performance preceded the records
: The S&P 500 gained 16.4% in 2025, and bullish 2026 forecasts cited expected rate cuts and the administration's proposed tax cuts under the "One Big, Beautiful Bill Act" as supportive factors (Axios).
Trump's social media posts demonstrably move markets
: A JPMorgan portfolio manager noted in May 2025 that "we're one Truth Social post away from being up or down 5% every day," citing a JPMorgan study on the market impact of presidential posts, which confirms Trump's ability to shape investor sentiment (Fortune).
Contradicting Evidence
AI and Big Tech, not tariffs, drove the rally
: Multiple analysts attributed the S&P 500's breach of 7,000 primarily to AI-driven optimism and Big Tech earnings expectations, with tech sector EPS projected to grow approximately 27% compared to roughly 9% for the broader index (Investing.com, LSEG/Reuters).
Federal Reserve policy played a pivotal independent role
: The Fed held rates at 3.50%–3.75% on January 28, 2026, after three cuts in late 2025, underscoring that monetary policy — not presidential directives — has been a central driver of market conditions (AP News).
Trump's own tariff threats have hurt stocks
: On January 20, 2026, U.S. stocks slid after Trump threatened tariffs on eight European countries over Greenland, with the Nasdaq falling 2.4% in a single session, illustrating how his trade policies can undermine the very markets he touts (AP News).
Courts struck down parts of Trump's tariff program
: On February 20, 2026, stocks jumped after the Supreme Court rejected elements of Trump's tariff agenda, suggesting markets viewed the removal of his trade barriers as a positive, not a negative (Investing.com).
Markets are now negative year-to-date
: As of March 16, 2026, the S&P 500 was down 2.1%, the Dow down 2.3%, and the Nasdaq down 3.7% for the year, erasing the early-2026 records Trump celebrated and complicating his claims of market strength (AP News).
Geopolitical shocks have overshadowed policy gains
: Oil price volatility tied to the Iran conflict — with Brent spiking to approximately $100 on March 12 — has driven sharp market swings largely outside any president's control (AP News).
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