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@HealthRanger
The market can stay irrational longer than any investor can stay liquid.
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@BullTheoryioposted on X
The man who predicted the 2008 crash is getting destroyed by Nvidia right now. Michael Burry bought $187 million in Nvidia put options at a $110 strike price in Q3 2025 when the stock was around $130. Nvidia is now at $208, 90% above his strike price. Those puts are effectively worthless unless Nvidia drops 47% before December 2027. Nvidia has added $2.15 trillion in market cap since he placed this bet. He called it "the most concentrated way to express a bearish view on the AI trade" and compared Nvidia to Cisco before the dot-com collapse. Cisco collapsed 90%. Nvidia just crossed $5 trillion and became the most valuable company on earth. Burry shut down his hedge fund in November 2025. He now runs a $39 per month Substack newsletter publishing his AI bubble thesis while Nvidia prints new all time highs every week.
View original tweet on X →
Community Sentiment Analysis
Real-time analysis of public opinion and engagement
Sentiment Distribution
83% Engaged
52% Positive
31% Negative
Positive
52%
Negative
31%
Neutral
16%
Key Takeaways
What the community is saying — both sides
Supporting
1
Being right on thesis isn’t the same as timing the market:
many replies stress the classic Keynes line — “the market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent” — meaning a correct long-term call can still lose if you’re early.
2
He underestimated the AI demand cycle and the value of chips:
a large contingent argues Nvidia’s surge reflects real revenue and runaway AI compute demand — “compute is the new oil” — making shorting its hardware an especially costly bet.
3
Options amplify timing risk — those puts look like lottery tickets:
critics point to negative theta, premium bleed and specific strikes/expiries (Jan 2027 $100–$
4
to say you must nail direction and timing or you get destroyed.
to say you must nail direction and timing or you get destroyed.
5
Liquidity, passive flows and political will are propping markets:
some replies blame massive liquidity injections, ETF/passive buying and policy support for letting leaders like Nvidia run despite skeptical fundamentals.
6
The Cisco analogy is disputed:
detractors argue Cisco lacked matching revenue back then, so comparing dot‑com infrastructure to Nvidia’s present cash flow is misleading.
7
Burry’s credibility is debated — one‑hit wonder vs. contrarian genius:
many call him a “one‑hit wonder” or a Substack grifter who’s been wrong often; others still respect his contrarian history but warn it doesn’t guarantee future success.
8
Don’t fight momentum — trade discipline matters:
practical voices advise “go with the flow,” cut losses, take profits and avoid high‑conviction shorts on market leaders.
9
Some expect eventual vindication but note the cost of being early:
a slice of replies accepts the bubble thesis could play out years out (2027–2030+), but emphasize that holding a losing short until vindication is prohibitively expensive.
10
Taunting and schadenfreude dominate some responses:
a noisy group resorts to insults, memes and celebration of his mark‑to‑market pain — the emotional reaction is as much a takeaway as the technical debate.
Opposing
1
He’s probably right — just early.
Many defenders invoke his 2008 call and argue that a correct thesis can look wrong for years; give it until Dec 2027 and his bet could pay off.
2
Stop spreading bad numbers.
Multiple replies correct the post’s facts (entry prices, strike/expiry) and note 13F filings don’t show strikes, premiums or current P/L — so the headline figures are unreliable.
3
He’s a risk manager, not an all‑in gambler.
Followers insist Burry hedges, uses fund capital (not just personal wealth), rolls or adds positions, and wouldn’t leave options unmanaged.
4
The AI/Nvidia thesis is a bubble argument.
Critics cite excess liquidity, ETF/forced buying, massive debt and weak ROIC as reasons Nvidia (and the broader AI trade) is structurally overvalued and vulnerable to a big correction.
5
Timing and option mechanics matter more than direction.
Even a correct bearish thesis can lose if puts suffer theta decay or hit early expiries; volatility spikes or earnings can revive short positions, but expiry dates are crucial.
6
Some say he already closed and profited.
A faction claims Burry took money off the table after earlier moves (and even made millions), so the narrative that he’s “burned” may be false.
7
Skeptics call it luck or repeated shouting.
Several replies dismiss his credibility — “broken clock,” lucky one‑offs, or a serial doomsayer whose many forecasts mean some will eventually be right.
Top Reactions
Most popular replies, ranked by engagement
G
@govindrkannan
Burry’s Nvidia bet is becoming another reminder that markets can stay irrational far longer than even brilliant investors can stay comfortable.....
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8.1K
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@nativistconcern
Nearly everything this guy wrote is fake: 1) Burry bought around the same price as today. 2) He effectively made a 10/1+ bet that Nvidia sinks within 24 months. Watch and learn from a skilled trader, not an X noob
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@SilverTiki12
Just too early. Same way he was during the housing market collapse. Eventually paid off. Don't kid yourself this is a bubble of epic proportions.
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@sapphire_rage
AI market crash is coming. The biggest traders are in cash. Banks are begging people to buy stocks The man isn't wrong, just early.
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@WolfpackTG
The loudest bears have been wrong every year and cheer when a 5% pull in on the overall market comes which is still 30-60% higher than when they started getting loud.
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6.8K
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