🚨 BREAKING: 🇺🇸 FED HAS OFFICIALLY CANCELLED RATE CUTS TOMORROW ODDS HAVE JUST DROPPED BELOW 0.9% THIS IS NOT GOOD FOR MARKETS... https://t.co/fDmEhVghA2
Source: Statista
Research Brief
What our analysis found
A viral tweet claiming the Federal Reserve has "officially cancelled rate cuts" ahead of the March 18, 2026 FOMC decision has sparked alarm across social media, but the reality is more nuanced. The Fed's current federal funds target range sits at 3.50%–3.75%, unchanged since the January 27–28 meeting. Market-implied probabilities heading into this week's two-day meeting (March 17–18) have indeed shown overwhelming expectations of a hold, with CME FedWatch snapshots placing the odds of no change at roughly 95%–97% and the probability of a 25 basis point cut at just 3%–6%.
The tweet references odds dropping below 0.9%, a figure that appears to originate from a prediction market platform rather than the widely cited CME FedWatch tool. Recent economic data has reinforced the case for the Fed to stand pat: February 2026 CPI came in at +0.3% month-over-month and +2.4% year-over-year, while core CPI registered +0.2% m/m and +2.5% y/y—figures broadly in line with expectations and still above the Fed's 2% target. The December 2025 PCE price index, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, had risen 0.4% month-over-month, further dampening hopes for near-term easing.
Critically, the Fed's policy decision will not be formally announced until 2:00 p.m. ET on Wednesday, March 18, followed by Chair Powell's press conference. Fed officials are currently in their pre-meeting communications blackout, meaning no official statement on the rate path has been or could have been issued prior to that time. The tweet's framing of an "official cancellation" is therefore misleading, even if the underlying expectation of rates being held steady is widely shared by market participants.
Fact Check
Evidence from both sides
Supporting Evidence
Prediction market odds near 0.9%
: At least one prediction market platform (Polymarket, tracked by FrenFlow) showed the probability of a rate cut by the March 2026 meeting priced at approximately 0.9 cents on the dollar, aligning with the tweet's specific sub-1% figure.
CME FedWatch showed low cut probability
: Multiple outlets citing CME FedWatch data reported a 94%–97% probability of rates being held steady, leaving only a 3%–6% chance of a cut—confirming that markets overwhelmingly expected no rate reduction at this meeting.
Inflation data supported a hold
: February 2026 CPI at +2.4% year-over-year and core CPI at +2.5% y/y remained above the Fed's 2% target, while December 2025 PCE rose 0.4% m/m, providing a fundamental basis for the Fed to refrain from cutting.
Strong labor market reinforced expectations
: A better-than-expected U.S. jobs report in early 2026 further strengthened the case for the Fed to hold rates, as reported by The National News citing CME FedWatch data.
Contradicting Evidence
No "official cancellation" is possible
: The Federal Reserve does not pre-announce or "officially cancel" rate decisions before a meeting. Officials enter a communications blackout period beforehand, and the policy decision is only revealed at 2:00 p.m. ET on the final day of the meeting (March 18). The tweet's language is fundamentally misleading.
Mainstream odds were higher than 0.9%
: The widely used CME FedWatch tool showed the probability of a rate cut at roughly 3%–6% heading into the meeting—small but meaningfully higher than the sub-0.9% figure cited in the tweet, which appears sourced from a smaller prediction market rather than the industry-standard tool.
The decision had not yet been made
: The tweet was posted before the FOMC's scheduled 2:00 p.m. ET announcement on March 18, 2026, making any definitive claim about the outcome premature. While a hold was widely expected, the committee had not yet voted or issued its statement.
"Not good for markets" is an overstatement
: Since markets had already priced in a 95%+ probability of no change, the lack of a cut was the consensus baseline expectation, not a surprise. A widely anticipated hold would not typically constitute a negative shock for financial markets.
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