JUST IN: 🇺🇸 President Trump says he created the "greatest stock market in history."
A Statista infographic titled “Trump Tariffs Cause Global Market Meltdown” that plots percent change in major stock indices (S&P 500, FTSE 100, Shanghai Composite, S&P/TSX, Nikkei 225, Euro Stoxx 50) from Trump’s inauguration through April 7, 2025; it shows U.S. markets falling far more sharply (around −17%) after tariff announcements, directly contradicting the claim that he created the “greatest stock market in history.”
Source: Statista
Research Brief
What our analysis found
On April 12, 2026, President Donald Trump posted on Truth Social that he was "creating the Greatest Stock Market in History," a claim that quickly drew widespread media coverage and public debate. The boast came roughly two and a half months after the S&P 500 briefly surpassed the 7,000-point level on an intraday basis on January 28, 2026 — a new nominal milestone for the benchmark index, according to Bloomberg.
Trump's assertion draws on a track record that includes significant gains: data compiled by Fisher Investments shows that during his first term (January 2017 to January 2021), the S&P 500 delivered a cumulative return of roughly +83%, turning a hypothetical $10,000 investment into approximately $18,328. Continued rallies into 2025 and early 2026 have pushed major indices to fresh nominal highs, lending surface-level credibility to the narrative of historically strong markets under his leadership.
However, the claim is complicated by several factors. Fisher's own presidential comparison data shows that multiple prior administrations — including those of Franklin D. Roosevelt, Bill Clinton, Ronald Reagan, and Barack Obama — presided over larger cumulative S&P 500 gains than Trump's first term. Moreover, Trump's second term has not been free of turbulence: in April 2025, sweeping tariff announcements triggered a sharp market sell-off that pushed the Nasdaq to the brink of bear-market territory and erased trillions of dollars in market value within days. Analysts also caution that presidents are only one of many forces — alongside Federal Reserve policy, corporate earnings, and global economic conditions — that drive stock market performance.
Fact Check
Evidence from both sides
Supporting Evidence
Strong cumulative gains during Trump's first term
Fisher Investments' presidency-by-presidency analysis shows the S&P 500 returned approximately +83% during Trump's first term (2017–2021), turning $10,000 into roughly $18,328 — a substantial gain by any measure.
New nominal record highs in early 2026
The S&P 500 surpassed the 7,000-point level on an intraday basis on January 28, 2026, according to Bloomberg, marking a fresh all-time nominal high during Trump's second term.
Numerous record-breaking sessions across both terms
Mainstream business outlets documented multiple stretches of record highs during the 2017–2021 period and into 2025–2026, supported by strong corporate earnings, tax-cut tailwinds, share buybacks, and accommodative Federal Reserve policy.
Contradicting Evidence
Other presidents oversaw larger cumulative S&P 500 gains
Fisher Investments' own dataset shows that Franklin D. Roosevelt, Bill Clinton, Ronald Reagan, and Barack Obama all presided over larger cumulative stock market returns than Trump's approximately +83% first-term gain, undermining the absolute claim of the "greatest" market in history.
Presidents are not the primary driver of market returns
Analysts and outlets such as Axios emphasize that stock performance is shaped by a constellation of factors — Federal Reserve policy, corporate earnings cycles, technological innovation, global growth, and valuation dynamics — meaning no single president can credibly claim sole credit for market gains.
Severe policy-driven sell-offs under the same administration
In April 2025, Trump's sweeping tariff announcements and subsequent retaliatory actions triggered a sharp rout that pushed the Nasdaq to the brink of bear-market territory and erased trillions of dollars in market capitalization within days, according to Bloomberg — showing the same presidency produced dramatic losses as well as gains.
The meaning of "greatest" depends on which metric is used
The highest nominal index level, the largest cumulative return, the best risk-adjusted performance, and inflation-adjusted gains can all tell very different stories; by several of these measures, earlier periods outperform the Trump era, making the blanket superlative misleading without further qualification.
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